Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-16 2.893934 3.496147 4.172041 4.983775 5.928934 6.991364 8.272495
2025-03-23 1.989596 2.734459 3.663520 4.894889 6.469871 8.401412 10.931947
2025-03-30 1.385203 2.136756 3.165320 4.648400 6.699420 9.398752 13.175274
2025-04-06 1.057603 1.805942 2.915826 4.634296 7.169200 10.701403 15.907817
2025-04-13 0.822524 1.543250 2.693562 4.591674 7.554366 11.890649 18.571406
2025-04-20 0.708762 1.442066 2.687655 4.854914 8.397990 13.793612 22.404871
2025-04-27 0.603820 1.328242 2.633782 5.020840 9.093319 15.523112 26.115960
2025-05-04 0.531566 1.256259 2.634435 5.268638 9.935247 17.538942 30.414525
2025-05-11 0.439662 1.121781 2.494709 5.242795 10.303069 18.816343 33.636315
2025-05-18 0.348475 0.964363 2.279818 5.041155 10.329869 19.518789 35.962428
2025-05-25 0.272080 0.818687 2.058796 4.788913 10.225032 19.972119 37.887100
2025-06-01 0.227906 0.738743 1.960705 4.763935 10.534016 21.159064 41.130701
2025-06-08 0.192360 0.672525 1.883795 4.778145 10.932662 22.562342 44.900157
2025-06-15 0.161025 0.608378 1.799218 4.763009 11.270836 23.883305 48.623572
2025-06-22 0.125949 0.520523 1.637256 4.546768 11.167438 24.361111 50.843221
2025-06-29 0.106031 0.473789 1.570798 4.541730 11.506916 25.711500 54.767547
2025-07-06 0.088309 0.427710 1.495758 4.502989 11.765642 26.918371 58.494800
2025-07-13 0.082317 0.422944 1.537167 4.763019 12.719518 29.588852 65.203397
2025-07-20 0.074166 0.406697 1.541347 4.926666 13.467185 31.887647 71.318293
2025-07-27 0.068817 0.400154 1.574037 5.170609 14.425313 34.686225 78.579693
2025-08-03 0.058216 0.365992 1.511667 5.145243 14.737139 36.142571 83.232054
2025-08-10 0.046208 0.318901 1.394789 4.946886 14.603640 36.631169 85.941536
2025-08-17 0.035730 0.272922 1.268755 4.698757 14.314190 36.750610 87.885876